According to the University of Michigan’s latest Index of Consumer Sentiment, a record number of Americans have negative views of the economy. This is yet more evidence that the American people are dissatisfied with their economic condition. Some commentators have claimed to be perplexed by the people’s negative views of the economy since government statistics show that most Americans have good jobs that pay them good salaries.
One problem with this defense of the economy is that government statistics are manipulated to understate the true rates of inflation and unemployment. Trip Powers, writing on Substack, looks at the situation using a more accurate definition of unemployment than what is used by the government. By, for example, including those who have given up looking for work and those working part-time because they cannot find a full-time job, the unemployment rate is over ten percent. An unemployment rate that high indicates a significant economic downturn.
The main reason why even many Americans with above average incomes are dissatisfied with the economy is high prices. According to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is known as the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation, prices have increased by an understated 3.8 percent over the past year. The culprit behind the price increases is the Federal Reserve. Today, prices are several times higher than they were when President Nixon in 1971 severed the last link between the US dollar and gold, thus removing any restraints on the Federal Reserve’s ability to inflate the currency.
With inflation rising more than incomes, many Americans have suffered a loss of purchasing power even though their nominal income increased. The erosion of Americans’ purchasing power has led to a debt-based economy. This has created a number of bubbles that likely will soon burst. According to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by economist Mike Shedlock, total car, credit card, and student loan debts are now higher, measured in real dollars, than nearly 20 years ago during the Great Recession.
Of course, the greatest debtor is the US government. The Federal Reserve’s practice of buying government debt in order to pump more money into the economy enables maintaining the largest government in history. Without the Federal Reserve, the US government would have to finance the welfare-warfare state via direct taxation, instead of through the central bank’s hidden (and regressive) inflation tax.
Many Americans voted for President Trump in 2024 because of his promise to lower prices. Now, Democrats may gain control of one or both houses of Congress by running as the party of “affordability.” Unfortunately, most politicians think the way to address the affordability crisis is with more government spending facilitated by the Federal Reserve. That will only worsen the affordability crisis.
Eventually, Congress will be forced to cut spending as the soon to be over 40 trillion dollars Federal debt leads to a dollar crisis. This crisis will result in the collapse of the welfare, warfare, and fiat money system. Whether it is replaced with an even more authoritarian system or a restoration of liberty depends in part on whether those of us who know the truth do all we can to spread the ideas of liberty. If we are successful, we can make America free, prosperous, and affordable.