Not All Ceasefires Lead to Peace!

Glasgow — Benjamin Franklin, remarking on the coming end of the American Revolutionary War, opined that “there was never a good War, or a bad Peace.” This aphorism chimes with our instinctual reflex to seek peace and informs the work of many international peace-building organisations. A cessation of conflict always takes priority when addressing armed conflict; Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) programs can only take place following an initial ceasefire. But not all peace is equal, and not all ceasefires lead to peace. This is particularly true in cases of civil conflict, where a temporary political settlement is unlikely to address the root causes of violence. The consequences of decisions made during negotiations will continue to reverberate long after the ink has dried.

While peace deals frequently succeed in reducing political violence in the short-term, they rarely signal the end of insecurity and conflict. The recurrence of civil wars became the most prevalent source of conflict after the 1970s — 90% of 21st century conflicts occur in countries which have previously experienced a civil war.

Even where repeated civil wars are not prevalent there is often simply a shift in the exercise of violence. The forces which negotiated a peace may splinter, creating a fragmented conflict which frustrates political settlement. Rebel groups may become criminal cartels while paramilitary groups often turn on their own communities. This means that not only does violence continue to plague post-conflict countries, but in some cases the violence transcends the military sphere to afflict civilian populations. Many “post-conflict” militant factions assume a more predatory character, targeting the vulnerable within their own communities rather than their former armed and organized enemies.

Efforts to reduce political violence of this nature have seen partial success over the last two decades, notably from the peace settlement in Northern Ireland. Research has attributed 158 “security-related” deaths in the 20 years since the Good Friday Agreement — a high figure, but a significant reduction in comparison to the height of the Troubles. Distressingly, most of these deaths are the result of paramilitary groups turning against their own communities. Within these groups, punishment beatings and vigilantism are common. A large degree of in-fighting is concentrated over access to criminal sources of profit.

The focus on violence which can be directly attributed to political motivations obscures the continuation and evolution of personal, intra-communal violence. It is often impossible to separate criminal violence from political violence. Organized crime is frequently embedded within an organization and its ideological legacy of political violence. Younger people are continuously and disproportionately victimized, suffering social exclusion and sectarian attacks while exposed to murals and narratives which glorify past conflicts. Intimate partner violence is shaped by these legacies as poverty and inequality continue to damage community relations. Despite the small number of explicitly political murders, there remains a culture of violence in some communities and a persistence of mutual distrust.

The picture in Guatemala is even starker, with the number of murders rising so dramatically in the post-conflict period that they outnumber the casualties of the 36-year civil war. Immense profit from illicit drug trafficking which drives cartel activity in Central America account for part of the violence, but they do not explain the emergence of a fragile peace which is in some ways worse than war. As in Northern Ireland, armed groups have increasingly developed a predatory relationship with those who they claim to protect. Campaigns from economic and political elites to disenfranchise and further oppress former rebel areas contribute to societal pressure and distrust. Having disarmed in the name of peace, leftists and indigenous groups make easy prey for criminal groups and pro-government militias.

Both of these conflicts bear the hallmarks of what Edward Azar called “protracted social conflict.” Social conflicts over identity and structural inequality cannot be easily resolved by peace agreements. In both cases, violence — both political and personal — has persisted in the post-conflict environment. Yet there are clear differences in the implementation of the peace process which worsen the situation in Guatemala.

In Northern Ireland, the governments of the United Kingdom and The Republic of Ireland were able provide some level of political guarantee to the different sides while the European Union and the United States acted as neutral brokers. In Guatemala there was no one to speak on behalf of the rebel groups as the US-backed government continued to abuse human rights in the face of a toothless response from the United Nations. Northern Ireland instituted a power-sharing arrangement which, while deeply flawed, at least guarantees a degree of political representation for all sides. The UK and Northern Ireland have also taken measures to strengthen the rule of law and develop a more politically neutral police force. Guatemala remains a weak democracy which is disproportionately representative of wealthy elites and reinforced by a culture of political impunity.

The cessation of armed conflict is a laudable goal, and Northern Ireland serves as an example of the progress that concrete and sustainable peace agreements can achieve. Policymakers must now reconcile the disparities created during the peace process that have benefited national security at the expense of the most vulnerable communities. In Guatemala, the peace process has simply shifted the field of conflict to the societal level where it is executed on increasingly uneven terms. It is therefore essential that the architects of peace look beyond the narrow lens of political violence and work to construct a sustainable peace which works for everyone in society.

Daniel Odin Shaw

– International Scholar of Political Extremism and Substate Conflict, PhD Student at The University of Glasgow
– Twitter: @DanielOdinShaw

From The International Scholar, here.

Credible Reasons to Doubt the So-Called Bucha Massacre

Exposing Some Myths About the Ukraine War

All rational Americans agree that we shouldn’t get involved in the Russia-Ukraine War. The neocon warmongers with brain dead Biden as their figurehead want to destroy Russia, and they are willing to risk nuclear war to do it.  But this doesn’t negate what I’ve just said. These monsters are anything but rational. But speaking of monsters leads to another question. Everybody knows John Quincy Adams’s line: “America goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.” Is this the reason we should stay out of the Ukraine war? Is Putin a monster, bringing death and destruction to innocent people, but someone whose actions we have to ignore because it’s too dangerous to act against him? Some people who say this don’t get what’s happening, although others don’t view Putin as a monster, but think he made a mistake. I don’t agree, but this isn’t my target. Putin is a rational statesman, with legitimate security interests and the supposed hero Zelensky is a dubious character.

Why do people think otherwise? One reason is the charges of Russian atrocities in Bucha.  These charges are just that “charges”. Fake atrocity claims have often been a way to inflame people to support war, and the Bucha accusations are the latest example. Christopher Roche, who isn’t pro-Putin, explains why we shouldn’t fall for it: “The reports and photographs showing an apparent massacre in Bucha, Ukraine, are truly terrible. They are reminiscent of the atrocities used to galvanize Western opinion during Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s, when the Srebrenica Massacre and the Siege of Sarajevo were seared into Western consciousness.

Of course, pictures do not always tell the whole story. For example, to determine whether a war crime took place we must know who did the killing, why, and how. After all, the United States killed many thousands of Iraqis and Afghans, frequently by accident, in the course of those wars. Few in the United States or Europe would call those actions war crimes. This all became apparent after the United States exonerated itself for the annihilation of an Afghan family via a missile strike during the withdrawal of U.S. forces last summer. Oops.

Like any crime, a war crime must involve intent or at least recklessness. Killing civilians or POWs without trial, or humiliating them as an act of revenge, are each undoubtedly war crimes. The documented abuse of prisoners by Donetsk People’s Republic commander Givi was the basis for a Ukrainian war crimes investigation against him, before he was assassinated in 2017.

If civilians were shot and purposefully killed in Bucha, it undoubtedly would be a war crime and a terrible thing. But there are credible reasons to believe the so-called Bucha Massacre was not the doing of the Russian Forces, but rather of the Ukrainians—either local militia or SBU or some combination of thereof—as part of brutal reprisals against ‘saboteurs’ and ‘Russian collaborators.’

First, this fits with a pattern of Ukrainian forces violating the rules of war, as evidenced by numerous videos showing the shooting of prisonerstorturing civilians, and the like. Unlike the still photos in Bucha, these videos show the actions themselves, as well as the perpetrators, which even the New York Times recently acknowledged.

Second, Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelenskyy has given numerous speeches calling for the punishment of ‘saboteurs’ and ‘traitors,’ saying the war will ultimately end with the ‘de-Russification’ of Ukraine. These are tough words, which clearly would tend to inflame and encourage the more extremist elements.

Three, the atmosphere in Ukraine is ripe for war crimes. While U.S. Second Amendment supporters were understandably heartened by the Ukrainian government’s weapons giveaway, some of those weapons ended up in the hands of criminals and undisciplined characters. This was not a mere oversight; Ukraine deliberately freed prisoners with combat experience in order to allow them to fight. One would not expect this group to be scrupulous adherents to the laws of war.

There are also many documented accounts of Ukrainians killing one another out of paranoia about spies and saboteurs. It is easy enough to see why. There is a hair’s breadth of difference between Ukrainians and Russians, and many in the East only speak Russian, have supported Russia, or at least have a less-than-enthusiastic attitude about the Ukraine regime. This fuels the possibility of internecine violence, which will be rationalized after the fact as the clearing out of traitors and fifth columnists.

Four, the timeline of reports creates real doubts about whether Russia perpetrated the Bucha Massacre. It is widely acknowledged that Russian forces left Bucha on March 30. Then, Bucha’s mayor happily announced their withdrawal on March 31 without any mention of massacres, bodies in the streets, or other war crimes. Finally, the Ukrainian SBU said it was moving into Bucha on April 2 to conduct a ‘cleansing’ operation against saboteurs and traitors.

The photos of the dead only appeared on April 2, and Zelenskyy soon appeared in order to give international journalists a tour. Reuters and the New York Times have also posted Maxar satellite images apparently showing bodies in the streets earlier on March 19. This is not as compelling as it might otherwise be; bodies left outside for two weeks would not be in the condition seen in the April 2 photos, but instead would be significantly decomposed. If there were bodies on the street earlier in March—whether combatants or civilians—they had to be different people than the dead civilians on display from April 2.

Rather, it’s a question of whether atrocity stories will lead to U.S. involvement in another war that does not advance America’s national interests. Whether it was the Rape of Belgium alleged in World War I, genocide in Kosovo, or Iraqi troops ‘removing babies from incubators’ in Kuwait, lurid and false atrocity stories have been used before to encourage Western involvement in unnecessary wars. As with ordinary criminal investigations, it is always worth asking if the source has a motive to lie about culpability.

Russia has called for an independent investigation of these events through the U.N. Security Council, but the current chair, the United Kingdom, apparently refused to convene the council. Why? Wouldn’t an independent investigation be the best way to determine what happened? Of course, the truth here is secondary, and neither Ukraine nor the West would have any interest in uncovering the extent of Ukrainian war crimes. Rather, it is clear the United States and the EU are invested in prolonging the war in order to weaken and punish Russia, even though the next phase appears likely to be much worse for everyone involved, with the Kiev government calling for the mass evacuation of the East in its most recent communications.

For all the ink spilled in condemning what is being called the Bucha Massacre, one wonders if the calls for war crimes trials and claims that the responsible government is illegitimate would be withdrawn if it turns out not Vladimir Putin and Russia, but Voldomyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine, were responsible for whatever took place in Bucha. The question answers itself.

The real atrocities are being committed by Zelensky’s forces, which include neo-Nazis. Russians remember the horrors of the German invasion during World War II and don’t want them repeated. Hence Putin’s demand that the Ukrainian government purge the Nazi elements in its government, especially to be found in the Azov Regiment. As Joe Lauria says. “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been making a virtual world tour with video hookups to parliaments around the globe, as well as to the Grammy Awards and the U.N. Security Council, sometimes with troublesome results.

On Thursday a major row erupted when Zelensky brought along a Ukrainian soldier of Greek heritage from the city of Mariupol, who just happened to be a member of the neo-Nazi Azov Regiment. Greece was under Nazi occupation during World War II and fought a bitter partisan war against Nazism (later to be betrayed by Britain and the United States.)

With Zelensky in the screen, the man, who gave only his first name, told Parliament: ‘I speak to you as a man of Greek descent. My name is Michail. My grandfather fought against the Nazis in the Second World War. I am born in Mariupol and I am now also fighting to defend my city from the Russian Nazis.’

Ignoring Greece’s suffering under German Nazism was a slight made worse by bringing a Nazi along to address Greek lawmakers.

Zelensky has gotten into trouble before by referring to a nation’s history in his addresses to parliaments. He caused outrage in Israel for comparing what Ukraine is going through today to the Holocaust while completely ignoring the role Ukrainian fascists played in that Holocaust.

In his address to the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday Zelensky said Russia had committed the worst war crimes since World War II, ignoring the much bigger crime of aggression by the United States against Iraq built totally on lies.

Continue reading…

From LRC, here.

The Elites Present Themselves as the REAL Victims…

Your Top Priority is The Emotional Comfort of the Most Powerful Elites, Which You Fulfill by Never Criticizing Them.

Corporate journalists have license to use their huge platforms to malign, expose and destroy anyone they want. Your moral duty: sit in respectful silence and never object.

The front-page reporter, Taylor Lorenz, recently of The New York Times and now The Washington Post, uses the skills she learned growing up in Old Greenwich, Connecticut and while being educated at Greenwich High School and absolutely lovely boarding schools in the Swiss Alps to express, on NBC News’ Meet the Press Daily, the trauma and victimization she endures from critics of her journalism: journalism which she has often weaponized to destroy the lives of many powerless people including teenagers, on April 1, 2022 (credit: MSNBC)

When Hillary Clinton’s divine entitlement to the U.S. presidency began to look imperiled in 2016 — first due to the irreverent and unkempt (but surprisingly formidable) Democratic Party primary challenge from Bernie Sanders, the independent socialist Senator from Vermont — her campaign and its media allies invented and unveiled a deeply moving morality tale. A faceless horde of unnamed, uncredentialed, unmannered, violent, abusive and deeply misogynistic online Sanders supporters — dubbed with the gender-emphasizing name “Bernie Bros” even though many were women — were berating, insulting and brutalizing Hillary, her top campaign surrogates (U.S. Senators, former cabinet members, corporate executives), and especially pro-Hillary corporate journalists with a vast artillery of traumatizing words and violent tweets.

This storyline — and especially the way it cleverly inverted the David v. Goliath framework of the 2016 campaign so that it was now Hillary and her band of monied and Ivy-League-educated political and media elites who were the real victims — was irresistible to Harvard-and-Yale-trained journalists at NBC, CNN, The New York Times and Washington Post op-ed pages who really believe they are the truly marginalized peoples. This narrative scheme enabled them — the most powerful and influential media and political elites in the world, with access to the most potent platforms and megaphones — to somehow credibly lay claim to that most valued of all currencies in American political life: victimhood.

With this power matrix in place, what mattered was no longer the pain and anger of people whose towns had their industries stripped by the Clintons’ NAFTA robbery, or who worked at low-wage jobs with no benefits due to the 2008 financial crisis caused by Clintonite finance geniuses, or who were drowning in student debt with no job prospects after that crisis, or who suffered from PTSD, drug and alcohol addiction and shabby to no health care after fighting in the Clintons’ wars. Now, such ordinary people were not the victims but the perpetrators. Their anger toward elites was not valid or righteous but dangerous, abusive and toxic. The real victims were multi-millionaire hosts of MSNBC programs and U.S. Senators and New York Times columnists who were abused and brutalized by those people’s angry tweets for the crime of supporting a pioneer and avatar for marginalized people: the Wellesley-and-Yale-Law-graduate, former First Lady, Senator from New York, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The Washington Post, June 7, 2016; The Daily Beast, Jan. 20, 2020.

The genius of the Bernie Bro rhetorical scheme was two-fold. First, it prioritized and centered elite discomfort over the far more important and real anger and deprivation of ordinary people. Secondly, and even better from the perspective of elite interests, it implicitly imposed a ban on any meaningful critiques of powerful political and media elites by insisting that the online abuse and resultant trauma they endured was the fault of those who criticized them. According to this elite-protecting script, this crisis of online abuse and trauma did not materialize out of nowhere. It was triggered by, and was the fault of, anyone who voiced criticism of those elites. By speaking ill of these media and political figures, such critics were “targeting” them and signaling that they should be attacked.

Continue reading…

From Glenn Greenwald, here.

The War: Putting Matters In Context

Whataboutism and Russia’s Attack on Ukraine

It is almost impossible to discuss US foreign policy without engaging in Whataboutism. What about American wars? What about American mistakes? What about American crimes? What about … ?

Although often dismissed as engaging in moral equivalency, Whataboutism can be useful in judging US actions. Criticisms of Washington cannot excuse misbehavior of other states, such as Russia today. America’s failures do not minimize the death and destruction wreaked by other governments, often undertaken without a pretense of good intentions.

However, the reality of US policy – true intentions and real effects – demonstrates how much of what the infamous Blob, or foreign policy establishment, does is based on a mix of myths and lies. Most dramatically, America’s checkered record undermines Washington’s claim to be a Vestal Virgin, exuding purity and love as it smites evildoers around the world. Indeed, Whataboutism is perhaps the most important counter to the tsunami of dishonest sanctimony that pours forth from policymakers on left and right every day.

So it is with Ukraine.

Russia’s invasion is a great crime. Vladimir Putin has recklessly initiated a needless war that is wreaking death and destruction on another people. Thousands of Ukrainians already are casualties. A million may already have fled. Russian casualties, many apparently conscripts unprepared for a fight they did not expect, also reportedly are high. The cascade of sanctions and bans against Russia will exact collective punishment on its population, who have no control over their own government. If anyone viewed Putin as a strategic genius going into this crisis, their illusions should have died. By desperately intensifying attacks on cities, he is inflating civilian casualties and damage, arguably a war crime. There is no justification, no excuse, no redemption for his conduct.

Still, Americans should ask, what about?

What about the fact that the US believes in a sphere of interest for itself, and has ruthlessly used military force and economic sanctions to enforce it? The policy’s formal name is the Monroe Doctrine. Washington has never hesitated to impose its will on its weaker neighbors. These days American policymakers are doing their best to impoverish Cubans and starve Venezuelans in an attempt to bring friendly governments to power. Yes, these are evil regimes, but the US has never hesitated to work with dictatorships, even in the Americas, which were pliant and shared Washington’s geopolitical objectives.

What about the fact that the Blob, as the foreign policy establishment is known, would never have accepted Soviet or Russian behavior akin to that of America in Eastern Europe? Imagine if newly ascendant Vladimir Putin had meddled in politics in Mexico and Canada. Pressed an association agreement on Mexico that would have redirected commerce south to an Russo-friendly international confederation. Promoted a coup in Mexico City against an elected, pro-American president. Sent officials to Mexico who openly plotted to bring friendly officials to power. And promised membership for both Mexico and Canada in the Russo-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. Hysteria would sweep Washington. No one would stand for the right of Mexico and Canada to choose their own futures. No one.

What about the fact that the US has expanded the Monroe Doctrine into a global principle that Washington is entitled to intervene up to every other nation’s border, including those of Russia and China? A presence that Washington is entitled to back up with force. While the US continues to object to the most minimal Russian and Chinese contacts with Cuba and Venezuela, American policymakers are debating issuing an explicit military guarantee for Taiwan against Beijing. Indeed, American officials often go even further, insisting that they have the right to invade and occupy nations – Iraq, most disastrously – to transform them. While Blob members view this as democracy promotion, countries on Washington’s “to conquer” list consider it to be aggression.

What about the fact that the US has subordinated its interests to those of some of the most odious regimes on the planet? Such as Saudi Arabia, a brutal dictatorship rated less free than Russia and currently engaged in even more deadly aggression against Yemen, one of the world’s poorest nations. The Saudis and Emiratis have spent seven years attacking civilian targets and enforcing a blockade. Hundreds of thousands of Yemeni civilians have died, millions have been displaced, and most of the population suffers from malnutrition or disease and needs humanitarian assistance. Yet Washington has provided and serviced the warplanes, supplied the munitions, shared intelligence, and for a time even refueled the attackers.

What about the fact that the US uses the concept of a “rules-based order” to validate a system created largely by Washington to benefit itself and friendly nations at a time when many countries had minimal capacity to influence international decision-making? Along with its allies the US treats this system as immutable. And insists that resistance to this system is to be met with American military threats and force.

What about the fact that the US routinely ignores international law as well as national sovereignty when invading countries, supporting insurgencies, and attempting to oust governments? In just the 21st century Washington has lawlessly invaded Iraq and occupied Syria, supported the overthrow of governments in Libya and Syria, and backed illegal aggression against Yemen. (Only in Afghanistan did the US have plausible justification for invading and none for remaining for 20 years.) The consequences of American policy have been hideous: hundreds of thousands dead, even more wounded, millions displaced, mass social disruption and civilian hardship, widespread conflict and instability, strengthened insurgent and terrorist movements, and enhanced Iranian influence. Over the last two decades Washington’s foreign policy has resulted in far more human harm than those of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela combined.

What about constant US interference in other elections? A Carnegie-Mellon study found that between 1946 and 2000 Washington had intervened in 81 foreign elections. As for Russia, in 1996 the US famously went all out to ensure the reelection of Boris Yeltsin over his communist party opponent; the effort was reported in a cover story in Time magazine. Although Washington insists that its current “democracy” aid is nonpartisan, in practice the US favors parties believed favorable to American interests. Foreign governments respond by demonizing and prohibiting foreign support for domestic political activists.

Of course, none of these points validate Russia’s atrocious conduct, or that of other states, such as China and Iran. Nor does criticism of America suggest that its government is worse than those of other nations, like that of Vladimir Putin. However, as Jesus famously taught, one should remove the plank from one’s own eyes before purporting to fix the vision of others. America’s pious proclamations ring hollow when Washington commits aggression and war crimes without accountability, causes mass casualties and instability without acknowledgment, and repeats the process without understanding.

Vladimir Putin’s government bears responsibility for the terrible crime of invading Ukraine. However, American arrogance, ignorance, and recklessness contributed to today’s crisis. As Washington responds to Russian aggression it also should learn from its past mistakes. Otherwise, history seems bound to repeat itself with deadly consequences.

Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire.

From Anti-War, here.