What is Bayes’ Theorem?
My humble understanding of it is the insight all scientific causal predictions depend upon prior assumed knowledge of the facts of the matter in question. The same applies to that prior purported factual knowledge, as well, with infinite regression. Why? The hard part in statistical analysis is determining sample size (Base Rate). The base rate, too, derives from various prior proofs, which, in turn, require another quantity estimate from earlier in time, and on and on.
This is the Chazon Ish’s point on the impossibility to decide disputes since every position is born of ingrained prior axioms (since he is certainly not speaking of childhood traumas!):
“It is not my way to enter debate, because differences of opinion are usually caused by personal events that may have taken place years earlier, even during one’s childhood. Any proof I will bring will not change an embedded opinion. I, therefore, refrain from answering.”
A Real Scientist: The connection seems “vague and only roughly applicable”.
Says you and what army?
In Rabbi Dovid Lichtenstein’s podcast on the newly discovered Techeiles (we previously recommended checking out here), there was quite a shocking discussion with one of the interviewees, Rabbi Nachum Eisenstein. Rabbi Eisenstein is a student of Rabbi Elyashiv and is involved in opposing fake Jewish conversions.
Here is the relevant portion (thanks to our reader, Rabbi A.S. for the recording!):
Instead of answering to the point; is the identification of Techeiles with murex trunculus valid or invalid, he boldly opposed the mitzvah, because of the antinomian “Chadash assur min hatorah” expression.
Rabbi Eisenstein further complains that Chas Veshalom, Techeiles might lead to observing other mitzvos as well, such as prayer on Har Habayis (or even worse, the unspeakable, unmentionable, unlinkable…). Right. As Rabbi Brand notes (here maybe?), the goal of tzitzis is, indeed, to lead to the observance of all the rest of the mitzvos!
והיה לכם לציצת וראיתם אתו וזכרתם את כל מצות ד’ ועשיתם אתם ולא תתורו אחרי לבבכם ואחרי עיניכם אשר אתם זנים אחריהם
למען תזכרו ועשיתם את כל מצותי והייתם קדשים לאלהיכם
This shall be fringes for you, and when you see it, you will remember all the commandments of the Lord to perform them, and you shall not wander after your hearts and after your eyes after which you are going astray.
So that you shall remember and perform all My commandments and you shall be holy to your God.
Rabbi A.S. quotes Rabbi Eisenstein saying he’s “Baruch Hashem” (!) not an expert on the topic, but Techeiles is a “mageifa” which “must be stopped”, since “wearing Techeiles, even if it’s the right Techeiles, is not as big of a mitzvah as the huge mitzvah of listening to the gedolim (well, which ones?!).”
In other words: ידע דאסור וקא טעי במצוה לשמוע דברי חכמים.
And the always-popular, “If Y is true, how come Rabbi X doesn’t say so?”
Of course, his rabbi, Rabbi Elyashiv himself, too, didn’t bother investigating anything either, for the very same nonsense reasons (as is clear in his sole, infamous four-paragraph [mis]treatment of the topic in Kovetz Teshuvos). He was admittedly not “aware of the re’ayos (proofs)”! The same intentional ignorance is certainly the case for most other current Torah scholars. About this Chazal say ערבך ערבא צריך!
Rabbi Eisenstein’s idea of Masores is insane (and he ignores the decrees against wearing Techeiles).
By the way, the pernicious arrogated “Posek Hador” political entity (arguably misapplied to the wrong people, to boot) violates the only true Halachic authority, each Jew’s decentralized, voluntary “Mara De’asra”, Rosh Yeshiva, etc. Of course, that’s part of the point of the PH idea.
Sorry, the above is not orderly; no time.
כבר כתבנו באריכות באנגלית בדבר בקשת הנבואה האמיתית מעצמנו בזה”ז ע”מ לקיים מצוות המקדש, והשאר, ובכלל.
אגרת תימן (אגרות הרמב”ם, מהדורת הרב שילת ח”א עמ’ קנב – קנג):
“ואין ספק ששיבת הנבואה לישראל מהקדמות המשיח”
העורך מציין לספר המצות סוף י”ד השרשים ומו”נ ח”ב סוף פרק ל”ו.
ויואל פרק ג’ פסוק א’ ואחרי כן וגו’; אם קבלה היא נקבל.