Brilliant article on Spiked here…
Some excerpts to give a taste:
Everything the government has got right on Covid-19 in the past 12 months has happened when it ignored ‘the science’. If the modellers hadn’t made such fools of themselves in the summer and autumn of 2021 they might have been taken more seriously by the government in the winter.
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This was wilful blindness. By mid-December, everything we needed to know about Omicron had been explained to us by doctors in South Africa over and over again. They told us that it was much less severe. They told us to expect a large number of ‘incidental’ cases involving people who were in hospital with Covid but were not in hospital because of Covid. They told us to expect more children to be affected but with only very mild symptoms. They told us that Omicron patients rarely needed to be put on ventilation. They told us that there were relatively few deaths despite high levels of infection. All of this is now apparent in the UK’s healthcare data.
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Predicting human behaviour in a pandemic is not easy, but most of the models don’t even try. If the modellers had noticed the international football tournament taking place in mid-summer they might have done a better job of predicting when the July spike in cases would end. If they noticed that the pubs are always quiet in January they might have made a better stab of predicting what is happening now.